Opinion: OBAMA vs MCCAIN - The Final Odds
By Connect2Mason Reporter Matt Todd.
Here are my state-by-state FINAL predictions for tomorrow’s November 4th presidential election…and more.
Tomorrow is it! Election 2008! Either way, it’ll be a close race (though probably not as close as markets suggest) and the U.S. will either have their first African-American president or their first female V.P. Here is the state-by-state odds and who will win, not to mention I tackle the challenging task of predicting the numerous battleground states Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
| State (Alphabetically) | Electoral Votes | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | 9 | ***MCCAIN: 3-1 | Obama: 5-1 |
| 2. Alaska | 3 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 6-1 |
| 3. (Arizona) | 10 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 5-2 |
| 4. Arkansas | 6 | ***MCCAIN: 3-1 | Obama: 4-1 |
| 5. California | 55 | ***OBAMA: Even | McCain: 8-1 |
| 6. (Colorado) | 9 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 7. Connecticut | 7 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 8. Delaware | 3 | ***OBAMA: Even | McCain: 10-1 |
| 9. (Florida) | 27 | ***OBAMA: 5-2 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 10. (Georgia) | 15 | ***MCCAIN: 3-1 | Obama: 7-2 |
| 11. Hawaii | 4 | ***OBAMA: 3-5 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 12. Idaho | 4 | ***MCCAIN: Even | Obama: 6-1 |
| 13. Illinois | 21 | ***OBAMA: 7-5 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 14. (Indiana) | 11 | ***MCCAIN: 7-5 | Obama: 3-2 |
| 15. Iowa | 7 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 16. Kansas | 6 | ***MCCAIN: 3-2 | Obama: 5-1 |
| 17. Kentucky | 8 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 6-1 |
| 18. Louisiana | 9 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 3-1 |
| 19. Maine | 4 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 20. Maryland | 10 | ***OBAMA: 7-5 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 21. Massachusetts | 12 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 7-1 |
| 22. Michigan | 17 | ***OBAMA: 7-5 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 23. Minnesota | 10 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 24. Mississippi | 6 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 7-2 |
| 25. (Missouri) | 11 | ***MCCAIN: 5-2 | Obama: 4-1 |
| 26. (Montana) | 3 | ***MCCAIN: 4-1 | Obama: 5-1 |
| 27. Nebraska | 5 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 5-1 |
| 28. (Nevada) | 5 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 5-2 |
| 29. New Hampshire | 4 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 30. New Jersey | 15 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 6-1 |
| 31. New Mexico | 5 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 4-1 |
| 32. New York | 31 | ***OBAMA: Even | McCain: 10-1 |
| 33. (North Carolina) | 15 | ***MCCAIN: 7-5 | Obama: 7-4 |
| 34. (North Dakota) | 3 | ***MCCAIN: 5-2 | Obama: 4-1 |
| 35. (Ohio) | 20 | ***OBAMA: 3-1 | McCain: 7-2 |
| 36. Oklahoma | 7 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 8-1 |
| 37. Oregon | 7 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 38. (Pennsylvania) | 21 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 39. Rhode Island | 4 | ***OBAMA: 7-5 | McCain: 5-2 |
| 40. South Carolina | 8 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 7-1 |
| 41. (South Dakota) | 3 | ***MCCAIN: 3-1 | Obama: 4-1 |
| 42. Tennessee | 11 | ***MCCAIN: 3-2 | Obama: 4-1 |
| 43. Texas | 34 | ***MCCAIN: 7-5 | Obama: 8-1 |
| 44. Utah | 5 | ***MCCAIN: 1-2 | Obama: 20-1 |
| 45. Vermont | 3 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 46. (Virginia) | 13 | ***OBAMA: 2-1 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 47. Washington | 11 | ***OBAMA: 3-2 | McCain: 5-1 |
| 48. *Washington D.C. | 3 | ***OBAMA: 3-5 | McCain: 25-1 |
| 49. West Virginia | 5 | ***MCCAIN: 2-1 | Obama: 5-2 |
| 50.Wisconsin | 10 | ***OBAMA: 5-2 | McCain: 3-1 |
| 51. Wyoming | 3 | ***MCCAIN: Even | Obama: 20-1 |
The Lowdown: My final predictions indicate a relatively landslide victory for Barack Obama with 338 electoral votes won to John McCain’s 200. Truthfully, my gut feeling says Obama could win with as low as 273 electoral votes, but honestly, the narrow gap is probably not as narrow as the media suggests.
On the fence: Why Obama and McCain COULD or COULD NOT win
BARACK OBAMA/JOE BIDEN (D)
For Them: The “Change” campaign has proven strong for Obama since the primaries. After eight years of George W. Bush, much of this country is ready for change. Obama and Biden have led in across-the-board voting polls, debate polls, and popular opinion polls. The Obama campaign has raised record dollars. There is tremendous minority and young vote and the economic crisis has helped change the perspective of many, including registered Republicans. And think of the history-making impact electing the U.S.’s first African-American president.
Against Them: Negative press following the Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers, and the recent booting of three journalists from conservative newspapers can’t be good. Biden’s bad choice of words. Obama’s lack of any real political experience, not to mention, many out there pulling out the race card. Obama is still not set on a solid plan to save the economy. And does the redistribution of wealth really sound all that appealing?
JOHN MCCAIN/SARAH PALIN (R)
For Them: Dubbed the underdog of the race, McCain’s confidence and Palin’s energy is a real plus. McCain’s promise of wealth for Americans rather than redistribution. Palin is also the conservative-thinker McCain needed to bring back his skeptical Republicans. McCain has the military experience and Palin clicks to many of the middle to upper-class mothers. McCain has surged greatly this past week and is now defying the odds of his over-confident critics. And think of the history-making impact electing the U.S.’s first female V.P.
Against Them: Palin aside, McCain is still a liberal sympathizer. Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter hate him, McCain supported the $700 billion Bailout, promises to continue the unpopular war in Iraq, and his pick for V.P. has not flattered a majority of his supporters. Palin lacks foreign policy experience and knowledge and the fact she governs a fairly desolate state causes many to feel she isn’t fit for the job. People also pull out the age card on McCain and the fact he’d be the oldest president ever elected. And while his promise to make America wealthy sounds great, many wonder, how will he do it?
Agree? Disagree? Comment and let us know how you think the votes will break down.
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