Final Election ’08 Tally

By Connect2Mason Reporter Matt Todd.

After predicting the odds for each state, the electoral votes defied MY expectations.

Final Tally

Barack Obama made history last night becoming the U.S.’s first black president and Michelle Obama has become our nation’s first black first lady. The race was tight according to numerous sources including CNN and Fox News, while my state-by-state odds predicted more of a landslide victory that could have easily been challenged.

I predicted Democrat Obama to pick up 338 electoral votes against Republican John McCain’s 200. And while Obama had a slim lead according to numerous polls on RealClearPolitics.com, the electoral vote wins defied my expectations with Obama winning more than I predicted. The final count was 349 to McCain’s 162 (with two states tied and still undecided on the victor) and I had guessed 48/50 states correctly with Washington D.C. guessed correctly as well.

Psyched I Got Ohio, Florida, and Virginia

The battleground states were the toughest to predict. These states included the big make-or-break electoral vote numbers such as Florida (27 EV), Pennsylvania (21 EV), Ohio (20 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), Virginia (13 EV), Indiana (11 EV), and Missouri (11 EV). Then there were the lesser EV counts such as Colorado (9 EV) and Nevada (5 EV). Projections and market analysts insinuated John McCain could only afford to lose one or two of the smaller numbered states, whereas Obama only had to win one or two to take the election.

Tough predictions included Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada, which I had in favor of Obama. As far as predicting Pennsylvania (also for Obama), that was actually easy. Pennsylvania has not been won by a Republican in over four elections; therefore to me Barack Obama had that state easily. Virginia hasn’t been a blue state since 1948; therefore I was a bit more skeptical. Nevada is in a deep housing crisis, affected by the bad economy, so I reluctantly called it for Obama even though it’s normally a red state. And Colorado, Obama has held the lead for quite some time, thus making it an easy call in his favor.

I was overjoyed to see Obama win Ohio (home of Joe the Plumber), Florida, and Virginia, although I predicted those states would go blue this election.

Losing Indiana & North Carolina

John McCain could not have been thrilled to know Indiana (a red state for more than 30 years) went blue (only barely with Obama winning it 50% to 49%). And in North Carolina, Obama led with more than 11,000 votes. NC is still considered a tie, but the final reports showed the state (also red for quite some time) could and maybe will be blue after all.

Why? Indiana’s population around the college town of Bloomington, Indianapolis, Gary, and the South Bend area helped Obama eke out a victory in the state. And North Carolina’s record voter turnout within the black communities and the big cities also was a substantial factor.

The Big Numbers

The big electoral vote count really mattered if McCain wanted to pull an upset, but he could not come close. The prize state is always California, with 55 EV, and they have not voted Republican since the Reagan era. Obama swept New York (31 EV), Florida (27 EV), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 21 EV), Ohio (20 EV), Michigan (17 EV), New Jersey (15 EV), Virginia (13 EV), Massachusetts (12 EV), Indiana and Washington (both 11 EV), and Maryland, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (all with 10 EV). These states assured and locked Obama’s landslide victory.

McCain on the other hand swept only five 10+ EV states, which include Texas (34 EV), Georgia (15 EV), Tennessee and Missouri (both 11 EV), and Arizona (10 EV).

Blame the McCain Campaign

The campaigning overall had been lackluster at best. For the past four months McCain’s platform was absent and he spent a great deal of time just attacking the Obama Democratic Party. In the last days he claimed he had ignored and disregarded much of the polls…obviously. McCain didn’t establish a solid platform to help bring wealth to Americans until the final stretch. He was confident, strong, and a true speaker, but it was not seen until the last weeks when voters already sent in a record number of absentee ballots.

The Joe the Plumber Factor

Did Joe the Plumber help or hurt McCain’s campaign? Honestly, it did not make much of a difference. He was just an ordinary person who would miss out on the opportunity to make $250K a year under Obama’s plan. He became a quasi-mascot of the McCain campaign, but was criticized and discredited for owing a great deal in back taxes, his messy divorce, and the fact he was not a licensed plumber. But as Joe Biden pointed out, what about Joe the store clerk, Joe the construction worker, Joe the Plumber WITH a license, etc.? Sorry John, but Joe the Plumber was the best you could do? At least he got his 15 minutes.

Sarah Palin

She had the energy, the grace, and the looks that appealed and intrigued many of McCain’s male supporters. John McCain put her on the V.P. ticket to appeal to female voters and bring back his skeptical Republicans. But governing the state of Alaska, many felt despite her strong conservative ideals, she was too out of touch with the real issues that would make her a strong vice president.

To many, she was nothing more than a hockey mom dressed for the job without being capable or deserving of it. Despite being in office longer than Obama, she was not an ideal politician. Plus, her lack of foreign policy experience and knowledge was very noticeable, thus she didn’t garner as many supporters as McCain would have liked.

Final Thoughts

The change we need is the change everyone hopes we will get. And despite the fact Obama may not be able to fix all or most of the problems; hopefully he will do enough to get the country back on track. McCain has had the Bush factor and the continuation of the war in Iraq hurting him and has remained behind in the voting, popular opinion, and debate polls for these past several months. Either way though, it’s been one hell of a race.